Adaptation to climate change and climate variability and its implications for household food security in Kenya Abstract Climate change and climate variability affect weather patterns and cause shifts in seasons with serious repercussions such as declining food production and productivity for communities and households in Kenya. To mitigate the negative impacts of climate change and variability, farming households have been encouraged to adopt different strategies such as new crop varieties, crop and livestock diversification, and water-harvesting technologies. These adaptation strategies are expected to boost both the amount of food produced and food security of an adapting household; which in this case is defined one that has taken up one or more of the twenty-five climate change and climate variability adaptation techniques identified during the study. Using maize yield equivalent (MYE), which expresses farm production in equivalent kgs of maize grain, as a measure of total crop production and food security, this study assessed the factors influencing adaptation to climate change and climate variability, and the implications of adaptation for food security. To accomplish these objectives, an endogenous switching regression model was applied to household survey data of 658 households from 38 counties in Kenya. The results demonstrated that increases in mean air temperature and precipitation influenced levels of food production either negatively or positively depending on whether they occur at harvest, land preparation or during crop growing periods. The type of soil also influenced productivity as households living in areas with different soil types produce varying quantities of MYE in kgs/ha of land. Household characteristics and ownership of farm assets also influenced adaptation. By comparing production of adapting and non-adapting households, we demonstrated that households adapting to climate change and climate variability through uptake of technologies such as early planting, use of improved crop varieties, and crop diversification produced 4877 kgs of MYE/ha per year against 3238 kgs of MYE/ha per year for households that did not adapt (a 33.6% difference between the two groups). Given the nature of for smallscale households who produce mainly for household consumption, high crop yields translate to increased food security. We can therefore conclude that successful adaptation to climate change and climate variability significantly increases food security in Kenya.

An analysis of Indonesia’s shrinking food security policy space under the WTO Abstract Achieving food security remains a challenge for many low- and middle-income countries, including Indonesia. The aim of this study was to assess the policy space to implement food security policy in Indonesia under the World Trade Organization (WTO). The policy space for developing countries to implement administered prices for agricultural commodities is significantly circumscribed by the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) under the WTO regime. In particular, the procurement of foodgrains at administered prices is considered “trade distorting support” and limited under the amber box. This study describes the food security policy context in Indonesia, compares existing food procurement expenditure to Indonesia’s commitments within the AoA, and evaluates the implications of different options proposed regarding public stockholding for food security purposes at the WTO. Administered prices and public procurement form part of Indonesia’s long-term commitment to food security policy, and aim to stabilize food prices for producers and consumers. Indonesia’s procurement of rice has been rising as a percentage of value of production (VoP). It is still under the de minimis limit (10%), but the applicable permissible limit on procurement has declined by nearly half, in terms of volume. This indicates that the policy space for providing product specific support is declining, as inflation is not accounted for under the AoA method of calculation. Of the different options that have been tabled to take into account inflation, using the Wholesale Price Index as a deflator increases the policy space the most. The peace clause deliberations at the WTO are of critical importance to the Government of Indonesia, as their policy space becomes increasingly constrained. In the near future, Indonesia may need to invoke the peace clause to restrain other countries from challenging its food security program.

Resilience and household food security: a review of concepts, methodological approaches and empirical evidence Abstract The way economic studies conceptualize and measure resilience is very heterogeneous. This does not only challenge scientific progress, but also raises the question of whether they measure one identical concept with different methods or whether they measure different understandings of resilience. This paper provides a review of concepts, methodological approaches and empirical evidence on resilience from a food security perspective, focusing on socio-economic research. We perform a systematic literature search to identify recent publications that analyze resilience from the perspective of household food security. We examine the historical evolution of concepts and methods used for measuring resilience and synthesize the evidence. We find that conceptual and analytical models have evolved over time, with important technical adjustments. Studies initially focused on measuring resilience as an end in itself, but more recently resilience is understood as a means to an ultimate end, hence resilience capacity is measured instead. Also, resilience was initially measured as an indicator of food security. Currently it is measured distinctly from food security. Multivariate techniques are found to be frequently used to quantify resilience. The empirical evidence suggests that households with higher resilience capacity tend to have less child malnutrition and better food security. We find that causal pathways through which resilience capacity affects food security in a microeconomic framework are barely explicitly considered in empirical analyses. Therefore, we suggest a model which explicitly addresses these pathways.

Impact of food consumption on water footprint and food security in Tunisia Abstract Over the next few years, Tunisia will face a growing scarcity of water. The concept of a food consumption water footprint has been recently applied to expand knowledge about water management and to respond to problems of food insecurity. In this study, following the Water Footprint Network (WFN) method, we assessed and analysed the food consumption water footprint of Tunisian households by geographical location and by group of food products. We used results from national food surveys to collect the quantities of food consumed and the WFN database containing water footprints of food products specific to Tunisia. We found that the average water footprint for the main consumed food groups has increased by 31% during recent decades, from 1208 m3/capita/year in 1985 to 1586 m3/capita/year in 2010. Despite the decline in cereal consumption in Tunisia, the food water footprint has continued to rise as a result of increased consumption of animal source products. This increase is associated with regional variations in food choices that imply large differences in water footprints. Urban diets present higher water footprints than rural diets proportionally to higher standards of living. This study provides a new perspective on the water footprint of food consumption in Tunisia by using dietary data at the household level and demonstrated significant variability in water footprints due to different food consumption modes, and socio-economic and geographic characteristics. Future food consumption trends will likely create more pressure on water resources, especially in Tunis city and coastal areas of Tunisia. Special measures related to price policies, sensitization of consumers, and changes in production systems may have to be taken by policy makers to reduce the water footprint in order to improve food security strategies and water management in Tunisia.

Where in the value chain are we losing the most food? The case of wheat in Jordan Abstract Efforts to increase global food supply through increased productivity and intensity of cropping are well documented. However, the literature on measurement of food losses and wastage and techniques to reduce them is scanty. This study aimed at providing credible evidence on the levels of food losses and wastage at each node along the entire wheat value chain in Jordan - from farm to fork. The “life cycle of food” approach, along with standard protocols developed in line with international initiatives led by the World Resources Institute (WRI) were used for physical measurements and estimation of losses at each node. Our results show that 34% of the total wheat supply in Jordan (both from local production and imports) is lost or wasted – costing the country about US$105 million per year, which is also associated with high levels of losses in natural resources. We found that postharvest losses are more important in Jordan where, at a level of 12.95%, wastage during consumption by households ranks first. Households reported that 67% of the household food waste was fed to animals. This means Jordan is losing 43% and 48% respectively of total protein and energy for every 1US$ spent on bread that is fed to animals instead of barley. These results call for a concerted effort by individuals, civic societies, NGOs and the government towards awareness raising and measures targeting reduction of wastage, especially during consumption. The Government of Jordan has recently reviewed the subsidy on bread, raising hopes that it will reduce consumption losses.

How well does the Food Consumption Score capture diet quantity, quality and adequacy across regions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)? Abstract The Food Consumption Score (FCS), a food frequency indicator developed by the World Food Programme (WFP) that aims to capture both diet quantity and quality of household food consumption, has been validated only against calorie intake in a limited number of rather small countries. This article examines the potential of FCS to capture variation in diet quantity and quality using the 2004/5 Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HCES) conducted in the DRC. In addition to quantifying the strength of association between FCS and a series of benchmark variables, a set of nutrient-consistent regional adequacy levels is proposed as an alternative to the standard WFP’s cut-off in identifying food insecure households. We point out several key issues. First, for a country the size of the DRC, but possibly in other settings too, it is necessary to adopt a geographically disaggregated approach to account for regional diversity in food systems and resulting diets. Second, FCS can indeed capture qualitative aspects of food consumption in addition to quantitative ones. Third, increasing the number of food groups, removing their associated weights or truncating their food group score does not structurally improve FCS’s correlation with the benchmark variables. Fourth, the WFP’s threshold is only weakly consistent in terms of nutrient adequacy, marginally relevant to each of the country’s regions and markedly less sensitive and specific compared to the set of nutrient-consistent regional thresholds, which we propose based on the empirical relation between FCS and the mean adequacy ratio (MAR). Lastly, despite several methodological challenges, this work demonstrates the potential use of HCES to conduct this sort of food security validation exercises.

Effect of market production on rural household food consumption: evidence from Uganda Abstract Food access is an important element of food security that has since long been a major concern of rural households. One intervention to improve food access has been increased promotion of market production in the hope that households will get increased income and access to food through the market rather than through self-sufficiency characteristic of subsistence production. We examine the effect of market production on household food consumption using a case of rice in western Uganda, where rice is largely a cash crop. Our analysis is based on propensity score matching and instrumental variable approach using survey data collected from 1137 rural households. We find evidence of negative significant effects of market production on calorie consumption; More commercialized households are more likely to consume less than the required calories per adult equivalent per day. This implies that the substitution effects due to higher shadow prices of food outweigh the income effects of additional crop sales. On the contrary, we find positive significant effects on household dietary diversity. We suggest a mixed approach combining policies targeted at market production as well as production for own consumption, and nutrition sensitization.

Achieving urban food security through a hybrid public-private food provisioning system: the case of Nanjing, China Abstract Chinese cities have been able to maintain much higher levels of household food security than many other cities in the Global South, according to recent surveys. Yet, little is known about the governance of the food provisioning system that underpins its urban food security. Based on a combination of household survey data, unstructured interviews and analyses of government documents, regulations and laws, we reveal that both Nanjing’s food provisioning system and its governance employ a public-private hybrid model. The hybridity is reflected in the mixed ownership structure of food wholesale and retail markets, the companies that manage them, and the involvement of both public and private capital in these markets. This hybridity prevents market failure in food system operation and thus is the underlying mechanism that ensures physical accessibility to and affordability of food in the city; it also balances food affordability and the profitability of food markets. This paper identifies various food security policies and regulations implemented by the Nanjing municipal government, such as the “vegetable basket” policy, the “crawling peg” policy in urban planning, the financial supports for upgrading wet market facilities and reducing rental fees, and the regulations on the retailing of fresh produce in supermarkets. These policies ensure that there is relatively equitable and easy access to healthy food for Nanjing residents and that the establishment of new wet markets keeps up with urban population growth. These food policies in Nanjing provide important lessons for other cities in the world to foster urban food security.

Food access inequalities in Chinese urban neighborhoods: a case study of the Dalian development zone Abstract Difficulties in accessing food exist in some Chinese cities, and it can be a challenge for residents to buy affordable, good-quality and nutritious fresh foods. This study proposes a residential building-based measure to evaluate food accessibility based on Geographic Information Systems. We used a total of eight types of food retailers and 28 food categories in our analysis and explored whether inequities in access to food existed among neighborhoods with different housing prices in the Dalian Development Zone using Kruskal-Wallis test methods. Our results show that 38% of residents living in 3724 residential buildings required between five and 10 min to access the nearest supermarket, while 10% required more than 20 min. The mean walking accessibility to stores with eggs (10 min) and with milk (10 min) was quicker than that to other types of food stores (14–16 min). In addition, high-wealth neighborhoods had better food accessibility than did low-wealth neighborhoods. However, in comparison to the other studied neighborhoods, those with medium-low-wealth had the highest level of food accessibility. Our results can be used by policymakers to better understand food access in residential areas and to help improve the food environment in Chinese cities.

R.S. Paroda: Reorienting Indian agriculture: challenges and opportunities