Agriculture, Development and the Global Trading System (2000–2015); Eds Antoine Bouet and David Laborde

T.S. Jayne, Jordan Chamberlin, Rui Benfica (eds): the transformation of Rural Africa

In this issue - October 2019

Global food security and food riots – an agent-based modelling approach Abstract Due to negative consequences of climate change for agriculture and food production shocks affecting different areas of the world, the past two decades saw the conditions of global food security increasingly worsen. This has resulted in negative consequences for the world economy, partly causing international food price spikes and social upheavals. In this paper we present statistical findings along with a preliminary version of an original agent-based model called the Dawe Global Security Model that simulates the global food market and the political fragility of countries. The model simulates the effects of food insecurity on international food prices and how these, coupled with national political fragility and international food trade can, in turn, increase the probability of food riots in countries. The agents in the model are the 213 countries of the world whose characteristics reflect empirical data and the international trade of food is also simulated based on real trade partnerships and data. The model has been informed, calibrated and validated using real data and the results of these procedures are presented in the paper. To further test the model we also present the model’s forecasts for the near future in terms of food prices and incidence of food riots. The Dawe Global Security Model can be used to test scenarios on the evolution of shocks to global food production and analyse consequences for food riots. Further developments of the model can include national responses to food crises to investigate how countries can influence the spread of global food crises.

Where in the value chain are we losing the most food? The case of wheat in Jordan Abstract Efforts to increase global food supply through increased productivity and intensity of cropping are well documented. However, the literature on measurement of food losses and wastage and techniques to reduce them is scanty. This study aimed at providing credible evidence on the levels of food losses and wastage at each node along the entire wheat value chain in Jordan - from farm to fork. The “life cycle of food” approach, along with standard protocols developed in line with international initiatives led by the World Resources Institute (WRI) were used for physical measurements and estimation of losses at each node. Our results show that 34% of the total wheat supply in Jordan (both from local production and imports) is lost or wasted – costing the country about US$105 million per year, which is also associated with high levels of losses in natural resources. We found that postharvest losses are more important in Jordan where, at a level of 12.95%, wastage during consumption by households ranks first. Households reported that 67% of the household food waste was fed to animals. This means Jordan is losing 43% and 48% respectively of total protein and energy for every 1US$ spent on bread that is fed to animals instead of barley. These results call for a concerted effort by individuals, civic societies, NGOs and the government towards awareness raising and measures targeting reduction of wastage, especially during consumption. The Government of Jordan has recently reviewed the subsidy on bread, raising hopes that it will reduce consumption losses.

How well does the Food Consumption Score capture diet quantity, quality and adequacy across regions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)? Abstract The Food Consumption Score (FCS), a food frequency indicator developed by the World Food Programme (WFP) that aims to capture both diet quantity and quality of household food consumption, has been validated only against calorie intake in a limited number of rather small countries. This article examines the potential of FCS to capture variation in diet quantity and quality using the 2004/5 Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HCES) conducted in the DRC. In addition to quantifying the strength of association between FCS and a series of benchmark variables, a set of nutrient-consistent regional adequacy levels is proposed as an alternative to the standard WFP’s cut-off in identifying food insecure households. We point out several key issues. First, for a country the size of the DRC, but possibly in other settings too, it is necessary to adopt a geographically disaggregated approach to account for regional diversity in food systems and resulting diets. Second, FCS can indeed capture qualitative aspects of food consumption in addition to quantitative ones. Third, increasing the number of food groups, removing their associated weights or truncating their food group score does not structurally improve FCS’s correlation with the benchmark variables. Fourth, the WFP’s threshold is only weakly consistent in terms of nutrient adequacy, marginally relevant to each of the country’s regions and markedly less sensitive and specific compared to the set of nutrient-consistent regional thresholds, which we propose based on the empirical relation between FCS and the mean adequacy ratio (MAR). Lastly, despite several methodological challenges, this work demonstrates the potential use of HCES to conduct this sort of food security validation exercises.

An assessment of the global food security index Abstract Several measures of food insecurity, whether at the household or at the national level, have been introduced during the past two or three decades. Some concentrate on the determinants of food security while other emphasize more the consequences of food insecurity. The main focus of this paper is on the food security indicators introduced by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). The paper has two goals. It first checks whether the set of weights selected by the panel of experts of the EIU plays a crucial role in the ranking of countries by level of food security. Then it examines to what extent the ranking of countries given by the GFSI is sensitive to the list of indicators selected. The empirical analysis conducted, based on statistical techniques such as principal components and efficiency analysis, led us to conclude that both the weights selected and the choice of indicators give a reasonable ranking of countries by level of their food security.

Determinants of postharvest losses along smallholder producers maize and Sweetpotato value chains: an ordered Probit analysis Abstract Postharvest loss reduction throughout commodity value chains is an important pathway to food and nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa. However, lack of understanding of the location and share of the losses and associated factors along the postharvest value chains remains a major challenge to operationalizing postharvest loss mitigation strategies. This paper assesses the determinants of postharvest losses at each postharvest stage of maize and sweetpotato (white fleshed and orange fleshed) value chains for smallholder farmers using our cross-sectional field survey data from two districts in Uganda. An ordered probit model estimation reveals that self-reported perceptions of the level of quantitative postharvest losses at different stages of commodity value chains are influenced by socio-economic factors as well as existing postharvest handling and storage practices. Increased years of education and training received on postharvest management are related to lower perceived levels of postharvest losses at key stages of value chains. Lower perceived postharvest losses are also associated with: at transport to homestead the use of sacks and bicycles as opposed to the use of baskets or transporting by trucks; at drying the use of tarpaulins as opposed to use of plastic sheets; shelling using bare-hands as opposed to beating cobs in sack with sticks; storage in a brick and mortar store as opposed to storing in living room in the house.

Food access inequalities in Chinese urban neighborhoods: a case study of the Dalian development zone Abstract Difficulties in accessing food exist in some Chinese cities, and it can be a challenge for residents to buy affordable, good-quality and nutritious fresh foods. This study proposes a residential building-based measure to evaluate food accessibility based on Geographic Information Systems. We used a total of eight types of food retailers and 28 food categories in our analysis and explored whether inequities in access to food existed among neighborhoods with different housing prices in the Dalian Development Zone using Kruskal-Wallis test methods. Our results show that 38% of residents living in 3724 residential buildings required between five and 10 min to access the nearest supermarket, while 10% required more than 20 min. The mean walking accessibility to stores with eggs (10 min) and with milk (10 min) was quicker than that to other types of food stores (14–16 min). In addition, high-wealth neighborhoods had better food accessibility than did low-wealth neighborhoods. However, in comparison to the other studied neighborhoods, those with medium-low-wealth had the highest level of food accessibility. Our results can be used by policymakers to better understand food access in residential areas and to help improve the food environment in Chinese cities.

Effect of market production on rural household food consumption: evidence from Uganda Abstract Food access is an important element of food security that has since long been a major concern of rural households. One intervention to improve food access has been increased promotion of market production in the hope that households will get increased income and access to food through the market rather than through self-sufficiency characteristic of subsistence production. We examine the effect of market production on household food consumption using a case of rice in western Uganda, where rice is largely a cash crop. Our analysis is based on propensity score matching and instrumental variable approach using survey data collected from 1137 rural households. We find evidence of negative significant effects of market production on calorie consumption; More commercialized households are more likely to consume less than the required calories per adult equivalent per day. This implies that the substitution effects due to higher shadow prices of food outweigh the income effects of additional crop sales. On the contrary, we find positive significant effects on household dietary diversity. We suggest a mixed approach combining policies targeted at market production as well as production for own consumption, and nutrition sensitization.