1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 202005456. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2005456117. [Epub ahead of print]
News Feature: Avoiding pitfalls in the pursuit of a COVID-19 vaccine.
2.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201909340. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1909340117. [Epub ahead of print]
Control of food approach and eating by a GABAergic projection from lateral hypothalamus to dorsal pons.
Abstract
Electrical or optogenetic stimulation of lateral hypothalamic (LH) GABA neurons induces rapid vigorous eating in sated animals. The dopamine system has been implicated in the regulation of feeding. Previous work has suggested that a subset of LH GABA neurons projects to the ventral tegmental area (VTA) and targets GABA neurons, inhibiting them and thereby disinhibiting dopaminergic activity and release. Furthermore, stimulation-induced eating is attenuated by dopamine lesions or receptor antagonists. Here we explored the involvement of dopamine in LH stimulation-induced eating. LH stimulation caused sated mice to pick up pellets of standard chow with latencies that varied based on stimulation intensity; once food was picked up, animals ate for the remainder of the 60-s stimulation period. However, lesion of VTA GABA neurons failed to disrupt this effect. Moreover, direct stimulation of VTA or substantia nigra dopamine cell bodies failed to induce food approach or eating. Looking further, we found that some LH GABA fibers pass through the VTA to more caudal sites, where they synapse onto neurons near the locus coeruleus (LC). Similar eating was induced by stimulation of LH GABA terminals or GABA cell bodies in this peri-LC region. Lesion of peri-LC GABA neurons blocked LH stimulation-induced eating, establishing them as a critical downstream circuit element for LH neurons. Surprisingly, lesions did not alter body weight, suggesting that this system is not involved in the hunger or satiety mechanisms that govern normal feeding. Thus, we present a characterization of brain circuitry that may promote overeating and contribute to obesity.
Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
KEYWORDS:
LC; LH; VTA; eating; reward
3.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201918143. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1918143117. [Epub ahead of print]
Humans incorporate trial-to-trial working memory uncertainty into rewarded decisions.
Abstract
Working memory (WM) plays an important role in action planning and decision making; however, both the informational content of memory and how that information is used in decisions remain poorly understood. To investigate this, we used a color WM task in which subjects viewed colored stimuli and reported both an estimate of a stimulus color and a measure of memory uncertainty, obtained through a rewarded decision. Reported memory uncertainty is correlated with memory error, showing that people incorporate their trial-to-trial memory quality into rewarded decisions. Moreover, memory uncertainty can be combined with other sources of information; after inducing expectations (prior beliefs) about stimuli probabilities, we found that estimates became shifted toward expected colors, with the shift increasing with reported uncertainty. The data are best fit by models in which people incorporate their trial-to-trial memory uncertainty with potential rewards and prior beliefs. Our results suggest that WM represents uncertainty information, and that this can be combined with prior beliefs. This highlights the potential complexity of WM representations and shows that rewarded decision can be a powerful tool for examining WM and informing and constraining theoretical, computational, and neurobiological models of memory.
Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
KEYWORDS:
metamemory; priors; reward; uncertainty; visual working memory
4.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 202001563. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2001563117. [Epub ahead of print]
Nasally delivered VEGFD mimetics mitigate stroke-induced dendrite loss and brain damage.
Abstract
In the adult brain, vascular endothelial growth factor D (VEGFD) is required for structural integrity of dendrites and cognitive abilities. Alterations of dendritic architectures are hallmarks of many neurologic disorders, including stroke-induced damage caused by toxic extrasynaptic NMDA receptor (eNMDAR) signaling. Here we show that stimulation of eNMDARs causes a rapid shutoff of VEGFD expression, leading to a dramatic loss of dendritic structures. Using the mouse middle cerebral artery occlusion (MCAO) stroke model, we have established the therapeutic potential of recombinant mouse VEGFD delivered intraventricularly to preserve dendritic architecture, reduce stroke-induced brain damage, and facilitate functional recovery. An easy-to-use therapeutic intervention for stroke was developed that uses a new class of VEGFD-derived peptide mimetics and postinjury nose-to-brain delivery.
KEYWORDS:
VEGFD; dendrite; extrasynaptic NMDA receptor; nose-to-brain delivery; stroke
5.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201915551. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1915551117. [Epub ahead of print]
Model-based integration of genomics and metabolomics reveals SNP functionality in Mycobacterium tuberculosis.
Øyås O1,2, Borrell S3,4, Trauner A3,4, Zimmermann M5, Feldmann J3,4, Liphardt T1,2, Gagneux S3,4, Stelling J1,2, Sauer U5, Zampieri M6.
Abstract
Human tuberculosis is caused by members of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) that vary in virulence and transmissibility. While genome-wide association studies have uncovered several mutations conferring drug resistance, much less is known about the factors underlying other bacterial phenotypes. Variation in the outcome of tuberculosis infection and diseases has been attributed primarily to patient and environmental factors, but recent evidence indicates an additional role for the genetic diversity among MTBC clinical strains. Here, we used metabolomics to unravel the effect of genetic variation on the strain-specific metabolic adaptive capacity and vulnerability. To define the functionality of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) systematically, we developed a constraint-based approach that integrates metabolomic and genomic data. Our model-based predictions correctly classify SNP effects in pyruvate kinase and suggest a genetic basis for strain-specific inherent baseline susceptibility to the antibiotic para-aminosalicylic acid. Our method is broadly applicable across microbial life, opening possibilities for the development of more selective treatment strategies.
KEYWORDS:
constraint-based model; metabolomics; tuberculosis
6.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201921708. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1921708117. [Epub ahead of print]
Ancient engineering of fish capture and storage in southwest Florida.
Thompson VD1,2, Marquardt WH3, Savarese M4, Walker KJ3, Newsom LA5, Lulewicz I6, Lawres NR7, Roberts Thompson AD2, Bacon AR8, Walser CA9.
Abstract
In the 16th century, the Calusa, a fisher-gatherer-hunter society, were the most politically complex polity in Florida, and the archaeological site of Mound Key was their capital. Based on historic documents, the ruling elite at Mound Key controlled surplus production and distribution. The question remains exactly how such surplus pooling occurred and when such traditions were elaborated on and reflected in the built environment. Our work focuses on the "watercourts" and associated areas at Mound Key. These subrectangular constructions of shell and other sediments around centralized inundated areas have been variously interpreted. Here, we detail when these enclosures were constructed and their engineering and function. We argue that these structures were for large surplus capture and storage of aquatic resources that were controlled and managed by corporate groups.
KEYWORDS:
Calusa; Florida; archaeology; fisher-gatherer-hunters
7.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201914420. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1914420117. [Epub ahead of print]
Carbon declines along tropical forest edges correspond to heterogeneous effects on canopy structure and function.
Abstract
Nearly 20% of tropical forests are within 100 m of a nonforest edge, a consequence of rapid deforestation for agriculture. Despite widespread conversion, roughly 1.2 billion ha of tropical forest remain, constituting the largest terrestrial component of the global carbon budget. Effects of deforestation on carbon dynamics in remnant forests, and spatial variation in underlying changes in structure and function at the plant scale, remain highly uncertain. Using airborne imaging spectroscopy and light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, we mapped and quantified changes in forest structure and foliar characteristics along forest/oil palm boundaries in Malaysian Borneo to understand spatial and temporal variation in the influence of edges on aboveground carbon and associated changes in ecosystem structure and function. We uncovered declines in aboveground carbon averaging 22% along edges that extended over 100 m into the forest. Aboveground carbon losses were correlated with significant reductions in canopy height and leaf mass per area and increased foliar phosphorus, three plant traits related to light capture and growth. Carbon declines amplified with edge age. Our results indicate that carbon losses along forest edges can arise from multiple, distinct effects on canopy structure and function that vary with edge age and environmental conditions, pointing to a need for consideration of differences in ecosystem sensitivity when developing land-use and conservation strategies. Our findings reveal that, although edge effects on ecosystem structure and function vary, forests neighboring agricultural plantations are consistently vulnerable to long-lasting negative effects on fundamental ecosystem characteristics controlling primary productivity and carbon storage.
KEYWORDS:
Borneo; carbon conservation; deforestation; forest edge effects; leaf traits
8.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201907393. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1907393117. [Epub ahead of print]
Nocturnal swallowing augments arousal intensity and arousal tachycardia.
Burke PGR1,2,3, Carter SG4,2, Knapman F4,2, Patti J4,2, Butlin M3, Gandevia SC4,2, Butler JE4,2, Eckert DJ4,2,5, Bilston LE4,2.
Abstract
Cortical arousal from sleep is associated with autonomic activation and acute increases in heart rate. Arousals vary considerably in their frequency, intensity/duration, and physiological effects. Sleep and arousability impact health acutely (daytime cognitive function) and long-term (cardiovascular outcomes). Yet factors that modify the arousal intensity and autonomic activity remain enigmatic. In this study of healthy human adults, we examined whether reflex airway defense mechanisms, specifically swallowing or glottic adduction, influenced cardiac autonomic activity and cortical arousal from sleep. We found, in all subjects, that swallows trigger rapid, robust, and patterned tachycardia conserved across wake, sleep, and arousal states. Tachycardia onset was temporally matched to glottic adduction-the first phase of swallow motor program. Multiple swallows increase the magnitude of tachycardia via temporal summation, and blood pressure increases as a function of the degree of tachycardia. During sleep, swallows were overwhelmingly associated with arousal. Critically, swallows were causally linked to the intense, prolonged cortical arousals and marked tachycardia. Arousal duration and tachycardia increased in parallel as a function of swallow incidence. Our findings suggest that cortical feedback and tachycardia are integrated responses of the swallow motor program. Our work highlights the functional influence of episodic, involuntary airway defense reflexes on sleep and vigilance and cardiovascular function in healthy individuals.
KEYWORDS:
arousal from sleep; arousal tachycardia; central pattern generation; swallow
9.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201809041. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1809041117. [Epub ahead of print]
Modified nucleotides may have enhanced early RNA catalysis.
Abstract
The modern version of the RNA World Hypothesis begins with activated ribonucleotides condensing (nonenzymatically) to make RNA molecules, some of which possess (perhaps slight) catalytic activity. We propose that noncanonical ribonucleotides, which would have been inevitable under prebiotic conditions, might decrease the RNA length required to have useful catalytic function by allowing short RNAs to possess a more versatile collection of folded motifs. We argue that modified versions of the standard bases, some with features that resemble cofactors, could have facilitated that first moment in which early RNA molecules with catalytic capability began their evolutionary path toward self-replication.
Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
KEYWORDS:
RNA world; catalytic RNA; modified nucleotides
10.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201920593. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1920593117. [Epub ahead of print]
Wild chimpanzees exhibit humanlike aging of glucocorticoid regulation.
Emery Thompson M1,2, Fox SA3, Berghänel A3,4, Sabbi KH3, Phillips-Garcia S3, Enigk DK3, Otali E2, Machanda ZP2,5, Wrangham RW2,6, Muller MN3,2.
Abstract
Cortisol, a key product of the stress response, has critical influences on degenerative aging in humans. In turn, cortisol production is affected by senescence of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, leading to progressive dysregulation and increased cortisol exposure. These processes have been studied extensively in industrialized settings, but few comparative data are available from humans and closely related species living in natural environments, where stressors are very different. Here, we examine age-related changes in urinary cortisol in a 20-y longitudinal study of wild chimpanzees (n = 59 adults) in the Kanyawara community of Kibale National Park, Uganda. We tested for three key features of HPA aging identified in many human studies: increased average levels, a blunted diurnal rhythm, and enhanced response to stressors. Using linear mixed models, we found that aging was associated with a blunting of the diurnal rhythm and a significant linear increase in cortisol, even after controlling for changes in dominance rank. These effects did not differ by sex. Aging did not increase sensitivity to energetic stress or social status. Female chimpanzees experienced their highest levels of cortisol during cycling (versus lactation), and this effect increased with age. Male chimpanzees experienced their highest levels when exposed to sexually attractive females, but this effect was diminished by age. Our results indicate that chimpanzees share some key features of HPA aging with humans. These findings suggest that impairments of HPA regulation are intrinsic to the aging process in hominids and are side effects neither of extended human life span nor of atypical environments.
KEYWORDS:
circadian rhythms; glucocorticoids; primates; senescence; stress
11.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201914963. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1914963117. [Epub ahead of print]
Autologous transplantation of spermatogonial stem cells restores fertility in congenitally infertile mice.
Abstract
The blood-testis barrier (BTB) is thought to be indispensable for spermatogenesis because it creates a special environment for meiosis and protects haploid cells from the immune system. The BTB divides the seminiferous tubules into the adluminal and basal compartments. Spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs) have a unique ability to transmigrate from the adluminal compartment to the basal compartment through the BTB upon transplantation into the seminiferous tubule. Here, we analyzed the role of Cldn11, a major component of the BTB, in spermatogenesis using spermatogonial transplantation. Cldn11-deficient mice are infertile due to the cessation of spermatogenesis at the spermatocyte stage. Cldn11-deficient SSCs failed to colonize wild-type testes efficiently, and Cldn11-deficient SSCs that underwent double depletion of Cldn3 and Cldn5 showed minimal colonization, suggesting that claudins on SSCs are necessary for transmigration. However, Cldn11-deficient Sertoli cells increased SSC homing efficiency by >3-fold, suggesting that CLDN11 in Sertoli cells inhibits transmigration of SSCs through the BTB. In contrast to endogenous SSCs in intact Cldn11-deficient testes, those from WT or Cldn11-deficient testes regenerated sperm in Cldn11-deficient testes. The success of this autologous transplantation appears to depend on removal of endogenous germ cells for recipient preparation, which reprogrammed claudin expression patterns in Sertoli cells. Consistent with this idea, in vivo depletion of Cldn3/5 regenerated endogenous spermatogenesis in Cldn11-deficient mice. Thus, coordinated claudin expression in both SSCs and Sertoli cells expression is necessary for SSC homing and regeneration of spermatogenesis, and autologous stem cell transplantation can rescue congenital defects of a self-renewing tissue.
KEYWORDS:
Sertoli cell; claudin; spermatogenesis
12.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201917521. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1917521117. [Epub ahead of print]
Trait velocities reveal that mortality has driven widespread coordinated shifts in forest hydraulic trait composition.
Abstract
Understanding the driving mechanisms behind existing patterns of vegetation hydraulic traits and community trait diversity is critical for advancing predictions of the terrestrial carbon cycle because hydraulic traits affect both ecosystem and Earth system responses to changing water availability. Here, we leverage an extensive trait database and a long-term continental forest plot network to map changes in community trait distributions and quantify "trait velocities" (the rate of change in community-weighted traits) for different regions and different forest types across the United States from 2000 to the present. We show that diversity in hydraulic traits and photosynthetic characteristics is more related to local water availability than overall species diversity. Finally, we find evidence for coordinated shifts toward communities with more drought-tolerant traits driven by tree mortality, but the magnitude of responses differs depending on forest type. The hydraulic trait distribution maps provide a publicly available platform to fundamentally advance understanding of community trait change in response to climate change and predictive abilities of mechanistic vegetation models.
KEYWORDS:
community trait assemblage; drought; forest inventory; mortality; species diversity
13.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201919930. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1919930117. [Epub ahead of print]
The carbon content of Earth and its core.
Abstract
Earth's core is likely the largest reservoir of carbon (C) in the planet, but its C abundance has been poorly constrained because measurements of carbon's preference for core versus mantle materials at the pressures and temperatures of core formation are lacking. Using metal-silicate partitioning experiments in a laser-heated diamond anvil cell, we show that carbon becomes significantly less siderophile as pressures and temperatures increase to those expected in a deep magma ocean during formation of Earth's core. Based on a multistage model of core formation, the core likely contains a maximum of 0.09(4) to 0.20(10) wt% C, making carbon a negligible contributor to the core's composition and density. However, this accounts for ∼80 to 90% of Earth's overall carbon inventory, which totals 370(150) to 740(370) ppm. The bulk Earth's carbon/sulfur ratio is best explained by the delivery of most of Earth's volatiles from carbonaceous chondrite-like precursors.
KEYWORDS:
carbon; core formation; light elements; metal–silicate partitioning
14.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 202003998. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2003998117. [Epub ahead of print]
Correction for Jamieson et al., Signaling the trustworthiness of science.
[No authors listed]
Erratum for
- Signaling the trustworthiness of science. [Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2019]
15.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201914481. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1914481117. [Epub ahead of print]
Evidence for habitual climbing in a Pleistocene hominin in South Africa.
Georgiou L1, Dunmore CJ2, Bardo A2, Buck LT3, Hublin JJ4,5, Pahr DH6,7, Stratford D8, Synek A6, Kivell TL2,4,9, Skinner MM2,4,9.
Abstract
Bipedalism is a defining trait of the hominin lineage, associated with a transition from a more arboreal to a more terrestrial environment. While there is debate about when modern human-like bipedalism first appeared in hominins, all known South African hominins show morphological adaptations to bipedalism, suggesting that this was their predominant mode of locomotion. Here we present evidence that hominins preserved in the Sterkfontein Caves practiced two different locomotor repertoires. The trabecular structure of a proximal femur (StW 522) attributed to Australopithecus africanus exhibits a modern human-like bipedal locomotor pattern, while that of a geologically younger specimen (StW 311) attributed to either Homo sp. or Paranthropus robustus exhibits a pattern more similar to nonhuman apes, potentially suggesting regular bouts of both climbing and terrestrial bipedalism. Our results demonstrate distinct morphological differences, linked to behavioral differences between Australopithecus and later hominins in South Africa and contribute to the increasing evidence of locomotor diversity within the hominin clade.
Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
KEYWORDS:
anthropology; human evolution; trabecular bone
16.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201918891. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1918891117. [Epub ahead of print]
Progress toward gender equality in the United States has slowed or stalled.
Abstract
We examine change in multiple indicators of gender inequality for the period of 1970 to 2018. The percentage of women (age 25 to 54) who are employed rose continuously until ∼2000 when it reached its highest point to date of 75%; it was slightly lower at 73% in 2018. Women have surpassed men in receipt of baccalaureate and doctoral degrees. The degree of segregation of fields of study declined dramatically in the 1970s and 1980s, but little since then. The desegregation of occupations continues but has slowed its pace. Examining the hourly pay of those aged 25 to 54 who are employed full-time, we found that the ratio of women's to men's pay increased from 0.61 to 0.83 between 1970 and 2018, rising especially fast in the 1980s, but much slower since 1990. In sum, there has been dramatic progress in movement toward gender equality, but, in recent decades, change has slowed and on some indicators stalled entirely.
Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
KEYWORDS:
education; gender; gender inequality; gender pay gap; occupational gender segregation
17.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201919550. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1919550117. [Epub ahead of print]
Alkali magmatism on a carbonaceous chondrite planetesimal.
Abstract
Recent isotopic and paleomagnetic data point to a possible connection between carbonaceous chondrites and differentiated planetary materials, suggesting the existence, perhaps ephemeral, of transitional objects with a layered structure whereby a metal-rich core is enclosed by a silicate mantle, which is itself overlain by a crust containing an outermost layer of primitive solar nebula materials. This idea has not received broad support, mostly because of a lack of samples in the meteoritic record that document incipient melting at the onset of planetary differentiation. Here, we report the discovery and the petrologic-isotopic characterization of UH154-11, a ferroan trachybasalt fragment enclosed in a Renazzo-type carbonaceous chondrite (CR). Its chemical and oxygen isotopic compositions are consistent with very-low-degree partial melting of a Vigarano-type carbonaceous chondrite (CV) from the oxidized subgroup at a depth where fluid-assisted metamorphism enhanced the Na content. Its microdoleritic texture indicates crystallization at an increasing cooling rate, such as would occur during magma ascent through a chondritic crust. This represents direct evidence of magmatic activity in a carbonaceous asteroid on the verge of differentiating and demonstrates that some primitive outer Solar System objects related to icy asteroids and comets underwent a phase of magmatic activity early in the Solar System. With its peculiar petrology, UH154-11 can be considered the long-sought first melt produced during partial differentiation of a carbonaceous chondritic planetary body, bridging a previously persistent gap in differentiation processes from icy cometary bodies to fully melted iron meteorites with isotopic affinities to carbonaceous chondrites.
KEYWORDS:
O and Mg isotopes; alkali magmatism; early Solar System; meteorites; planetary differentiation
18.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201918763. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1918763117. [Epub ahead of print]
Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae evolution and establishment of reservoirs in aquatic ecosystems.
Mavian C1,2, Paisie TK3,2, Alam MT3, Browne C4, Beau De Rochars VM2,5, Nembrini S3,2, Cash MN3,2, Nelson EJ3,6,7, Azarian T8, Ali A1,6, Morris JG Jr1,9, Salemi M1,2.
Abstract
The spread of cholera in the midst of an epidemic is largely driven by direct transmission from person to person, although it is well-recognized that Vibrio cholerae is also capable of growth and long-term survival in aquatic ecosystems. While prior studies have shown that aquatic reservoirs are important in the persistence of the disease on the Indian subcontinent, an epidemiological view postulating that locally evolving environmental V. cholerae contributes to outbreaks outside Asia remains debated. The single-source introduction of toxigenic V. cholerae O1 in Haiti, one of the largest outbreaks occurring this century, with 812,586 suspected cases and 9,606 deaths reported through July 2018, provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the role of aquatic reservoirs and assess bacterial transmission dynamics across environmental boundaries. To this end, we investigated the phylogeography of both clinical and aquatic toxigenic V. cholerae O1 isolates and show robust evidence of the establishment of aquatic reservoirs as well as ongoing evolution of V. cholerae isolates from aquatic sites. Novel environmental lineages emerged from sequential population bottlenecks, carrying mutations potentially involved in adaptation to the aquatic ecosystem. Based on such empirical data, we developed a mixed-transmission dynamic model of V. cholerae, where aquatic reservoirs actively contribute to genetic diversification and epidemic emergence, which underscores the complexity of transmission pathways in epidemics and endemic settings and the need for long-term investments in cholera control at both human and environmental levels.
Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
KEYWORDS:
cholera; evolution; phylodynamics; reservoir
19.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 202003878. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2003878117. [Epub ahead of print]
QnAs with Paula England.
20.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Mar 30. pii: 201915006. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1915006117. [Epub ahead of print]
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.
Salganik MJ1, Lundberg I2, Kindel AT2, Ahearn CE3, Al-Ghoneim K4, Almaatouq A5,6, Altschul DM7, Brand JE3,8, Carnegie NB9, Compton RJ10, Datta D11, Davidson T12, Filippova A13, Gilroy C14, Goode BJ15, Jahani E16, Kashyap R17,18,19, Kirchner A20, McKay S21, Morgan AC22, Pentland A6, Polimis K23, Raes L24, Rigobon DE25, Roberts CV26, Stanescu DM27, Suhara Y6, Usmani A28, Wang EH27, Adem M29, Alhajri A30, AlShebli B31, Amin R32, Amos RB26, Argyle LP33, Baer-Bositis L34, Büchi M35, Chung BR36, Eggert W37, Faletto G38, Fan Z39, Freese J34, Gadgil T34, Gagné J34, Gao Y40, Halpern-Manners A29, Hashim SP26, Hausen S34, He G41, Higuera K34, Hogan B42, Horwitz IM43, Hummel LM34, Jain N25, Jin K44, Jurgens D45, Kaminski P29,46, Karapetyan A47,48, Kim EH34, Leizman B26, Liu N27, Möser M26, Mack AE27, Mahajan M26, Mandell N49, Marahrens H29, Mercado-Garcia D43, Mocz V50, Mueller-Gastell K34, Musse A51, Niu Q32, Nowak W52, Omidvar H53, Or A26, Ouyang K26, Pinto KM54, Porter E55, Porter KE56, Qian C26, Rauf T34, Sargsyan A57, Schaffner T26, Schnabel L34, Schonfeld B27, Sender B58, Tang JD26, Tsurkov E34, van Loon A34, Varol O59,60, Wang X61, Wang Z60,62, Wang J26, Wang F58, Weissman S26, Whitaker K63,64, Wolters MK65, Woon WL66, Wu J67, Wu C26, Yang K53, Yin J39, Zhao B68, Zhu C39, Brooks-Gunn J69,70, Engelhardt BE26,36, Hardt M71, Knox D27, Levy K72, Narayanan A26, Stewart BM2, Watts DJ73,74,75, McLanahan S1.
Abstract
How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. Within each outcome, prediction error was strongly associated with the family being predicted and weakly associated with the technique used to generate the prediction. Overall, these results suggest practical limits to the predictability of life outcomes in some settings and illustrate the value of mass collaborations in the social sciences.
Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.
KEYWORDS:
life course; machine learning; mass collaboration; prediction
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